Y2K problem: `Panic now,' expert says

Bruce Meyer is not a man who's easily alarmed. Cautious, yes; concerned that too many of us are not taking the Year 2000 crisis seriously enough, certainly. A computer consultant whose home-based company in Hempfield Township provides accounting software, service support and upgrades to a small-business clientele, Meyer is getting worried. When reading a date, many computers utilize only the last two digits of the year, a problem created decades ago by short-sighted programmers looking to save scarce memory space. Many people fear that because of this "Y2K bug," computers reading the digits "00" will assume the year is 1900 - and either mishandle information or crash. Meyer estimated that as many as 90 percent of small businesses have not begun to address the Y2K problem. Many of his clients' problems can be fixed, he said, but upgrading takes time. He advises businesses not to wait until the 11th hour to make necessary changes. "Installation, training and `going live' are all time-consuming," he said. "It's better to panic in June than in October. We've lost track of being prepared for this thing. ... If I had my choice, I'd say panic now." Because computers control so many aspects of life in the '90s, Meyer expects the Y2K bug to have far-reaching effects. It's unrealistic, he said, to anticipate that the changeover to a new century will be just a "bump in the road." "At the very least there will be inconveniences," he said. But Meyer does not advocate digging bunkers or stockpiling weapons as the millennium draws to a close. He suggests a response "somewhere in the middle" between apathy and alarm. Meyer taught a weekend seminar called "Time Bomb 2000" at Westmoreland County Community College. He also has addressed civic groups and business organizations whose members hope to enter the year 2000 free of serious computer glitches. He tells office workers to "assume the worst." "How do you keep your business running?" he asks. "Do you have a generator? Do you have a manual typewriter? Do you have a printout of your records and a list of your inventory?" He recommends that business operators purchase laptop computers, which can run on batteries. And everyone should keep paper copies of bank statements, insurance policies and investment information, he said, in case computerized records go awry.

EVERYDAY EFFECTS

Meyer said the first warning of potential Y2K problems came not years, but decades, ago. They were largely ignored. In the 1970s, he said, no one anticipated how computers would infiltrate our work and our everyday lives. And there appeared to be plenty of time to fix what seemed to be a minor problem. "We are highly intertwined (with computers) these days," he said. For instance, if transportation dispatching systems should be disrupted, travelers might miss their flights - and trucks hauling food across the country might grind to a halt. "It's a (potential) chain of events no one even wants to try to predict," Meyer said. Already, classified ads in newspapers urge readers to prepare for the new year, offering for sale everything from generators to plastic barrels suitable for storing food and water. Meyer said he has quietly begun readying himself and his family, purchasing a generator and laying aside dried and canned foods. They have a small cookstove and a kerosene heater, and plan to burn wood in their fireplace. They have even discussed how to store water in case utilities are affected by the computer glitch. He called his own preparations "fairly minor so far." Meyer said he has talked with people who fear that gangs of looters will roam neighborhoods, looking for stockpiled materials. He said a more likely scenario may be that friends, relatives and neighbors - their cupboards bare - will turn up on the doorsteps of those who have planned ahead.

HEAVENLY FURY

More fearful for the future - but certain that we have the power to control it - is Richard D. Wiles, author of "Judgment Day 2000! How the Coming Worldwide Computer Crash Will Radically Change Your Life." Wiles, founder and president of the trade organization Christian Business Association, is convinced the Y2K problem is the direct result of God's wrath. A resident of Dallas, Texas, he recently visited Westmoreland County, speaking to pastors organizations and the media. "This is not Armageddon," he said. "It's not Jesus Christ returning on that day. But America is going to go through a long, difficult period. This will be chastisement for turning our backs on God." Yet Wiles said he believes a "sin amnesty" exists. "It's open to anyone who will simply ... ask God's forgiveness," he said. "If enough people in the nation do it, it will turn the tide. ... Whether that will happen I don't know. God's not letting me see that far." Officials told to be ready Wiles said churches may be called upon to lead restoration efforts if the nation's infrastructure is widely affected by the computer bug. "Churches may have to feed, clothe and minister a confused population," he said. Where will Wiles be as midnight nears on Dec. 31? "On my knees," he said. "Praying."